state of the union

WASHINGTON, Jan 28, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) - the president of the United States the last state of the Union is traditionally speech where it exposes what it hopes to see the history will retain that his legacy. He is hardly doubt, George W. Bush would like to assert this evening that the economy is stronger and more prosperous because of its policies, but which it would be difficult to sell. Such a claim would be quite simply the lack of credibility whereas the country is at the edge of a recession or - according to certain economists, and majority of the citizens - already one. But Bush can be unaware of the economy with difficulty either. "It will be praised with confidence which it will sign in bipartite law agreement to legislate an economic program of encouragement to thwart the effects of an economy directed in fast descent. The tax package will be the climax of its message, because it is the most important text of law which (can be) promulgated quickly and without quarrels partisanes ", declared Brian Fabbri of BNP Paribas. (CEOO: BPRBF) The program of encouragement must be of Bush to concentrate because the economy reached the top of the concern of the public and the list because it has to largely promote it if is to be likely unspecified to obtain quickly by the Congress. It is what returns its position in a paradoxical way. "It ya of great chances to concentrate much on the challenges close to their term, and either on its heritage. There will be by saying its economic heritage is important but, in addition, the economy is so weak that we need to adopt a program of encouragement ", declared Kevin Hassett of American Enterprise Institute (AEI) (and of advising economic near the presidential Republic Candidat senator of Arizona John McCain). White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, obtained a direct question about the economic heritage Bush this morning: "is the country better today than it was to it it ya seven years?" It affirmed that Bush is not to even think of her heritage, this evening. "the president does not make pass much from time to think that, she said. "Look at, the president estimates that its heritage are tightened when people to look at the file and the history says it." To approximately 150 billion usd, stimulation is large, a little more than 1 pct of the GDP. The intention is that it is put in?uvre quickly with the first controls to leave taxpayers in May. "the tax on the rebates will only be worth with him nearly 100 billion usd, and it is difficult to imagine this type of throw the money with the economy and not seeing a result", according to Ian Shepherdson de High Frequency Economics. Academic research on the tax reductions in 2001 and 2003 showed that between a third and two thirds of the handing-over were spent quickly. Now, "the increase in the financial pressures on the households means that more important proportion of the handing-over of this year will be safeguarded or used to refund the debt", declared Shepherdson. Mr. Bush himself always has depicts like anti-deficit and it ya initiatives of fight against the expenditure to be taken into account in the State of the Union speech. The cost of this program of encouragement is likely to be left on side. Congressional Budget Office said it ya great chances to add 75 billion usd to the deficit the financial year 2008 and the same amount for the fiscal year 2009. Merrill Lynch (NYSE: SEA) (CEOO: MERIZ) David Rosenberg, who believes in the east United States already in recession does not see many effects of stimulation, even combined with reductions of rate EDF. "A the margin, the fact that we attend a more aggressive form of the policy is a positive answer, but in the overall diagram of the things, it does not modify the prospects for recession, even if it can be used for all the terns of the pain", At it says. Leaving the impression that at least it tests of tern economic of the pain can be best president Bush can hope for this evening. To wash/AJB Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copy, reproduction or redistribution of Thomson Financial News contained, including by framing or similar means, are expressly prohibited without the assent writes preliminary of Thomson Financial News.